Boston University

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	212.0
Current RPI:	212
Expected SOS:	255
Current SOS:	255
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-7
Current OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC Record:	3-7
Expected OOC RPI:	247
Expected OOC SOS:	238

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	212.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Boston University.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Northeastern (55.0)	CAA	H	59-65	L	0%
11-13	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	74-88	L	0%
11-19	Connecticut (123.0)	Amer	A	85-66	L	0%
11-22	Maine (338.0)	AE	A	69-78	W	100%
11-29	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	A	69-70	W	100%
12-5	Miami FL (28.0)	ACC	A	69-54	L	0%
12-8	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	A	87-90	W	100%
12-13	UMass Lowell (289.0)	AE	A	87-82	L	0%
12-17	Elon (205.0)	CAA	H	69-77	L	0%
12-21	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	A	74-63	L	0%
12-29	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	90-82	W	100%
1-2	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	79-84	W	100%
1-5	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	68-65	L	0%
1-8	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	92-81	W	100%
1-11	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	72-58	W	100%
1-14	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	A	40-54	W	100%
1-17	American (336.0)	Pat	H	58-69	L	0%
1-20	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	68-75	W	100%
1-24	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	72-75	W	100%
1-28	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	79-91	L	0%
1-31	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	64-55	W	100%
2-3	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	80-75	L	0%
2-7	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	74-60	L	0%
2-10	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	62-73	L	0%
2-14	American (336.0)	Pat	A	60-56	L	0%
2-17	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	48-62	L	0%
2-21	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	81-65	W	100%
2-24	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	59-61	W	100%
3-1	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	82-88	W	100%
3-4	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	90-59	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Boston University's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Boston University's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Boston University.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Boston University	Pat	26.52	26.52	50.65	50.65	0.34	0.34
Bucknell	Pat	6.08	6.08	74.19	74.19	2.94	2.94
Lehigh	Pat	5.92	5.92	53.85	53.85	0.46	0.46
Colgate	Pat	4.55	4.55	58.62	58.62	0.78	0.78
Holy Cross	Pat	4.51	4.51	37.93	37.93	-1.09	-1.09
Loyola MD	Pat	4.47	4.47	25.00	25.00	-2.24	-2.24
Lafayette	Pat	4.42	4.42	32.14	32.14	-1.58	-1.58
American	Pat	4.40	4.40	14.29	14.29	-3.14	-3.14
Navy	Pat	4.40	4.40	62.07	62.07	1.06	1.06
Army	Pat	4.36	4.36	44.44	44.44	-0.48	-0.48
Albany	AE	1.94	1.94	66.67	66.67	0.65	0.65
New Hampshire	AE	1.94	1.94	28.57	28.57	-0.83	-0.83
UMass Lowell	AE	1.89	1.89	35.71	35.71	-0.54	-0.54
Maine	AE	1.84	1.84	13.79	13.79	-1.33	-1.33
Northeastern	CAA	1.82	1.82	67.74	67.74	0.65	0.65
Harvard	Ivy	1.75	1.75	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Connecticut	Amer	1.72	1.72	41.94	41.94	-0.28	-0.28
Miami FL	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.00	70.00	0.69	0.69
Elon	CAA	1.72	1.72	37.93	37.93	-0.41	-0.41
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.67	1.67	55.17	55.17	0.17	0.17
Binghamton	AE	0.39	0.39	31.03	31.03	-0.15	-0.15
Vermont	AE	0.38	0.38	78.79	78.79	0.22	0.22
UMBC	AE	0.36	0.36	67.74	67.74	0.13	0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.35	0.35	38.71	38.71	-0.08	-0.08
Columbia	Ivy	0.30	0.30	26.92	26.92	-0.14	-0.14
Marist	MAAC	0.28	0.28	19.35	19.35	-0.17	-0.17
Hartford	AE	0.25	0.25	58.06	58.06	0.04	0.04
Cornell	Ivy	0.25	0.25	40.74	40.74	-0.05	-0.05
Siena	MAAC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Princeton	Ivy	0.22	0.22	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.22	0.22	37.50	37.50	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.21	0.21	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.20	0.20	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.19	0.19	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Penn	Ivy	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
Yale	Ivy	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.17	0.17	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Hofstra	CAA	0.17	0.17	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Towson	CAA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.15	0.15	40.62	40.62	-0.03	-0.03
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.14	0.14	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.14	0.14	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.14	0.14	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	15.62	15.62	-0.09	-0.09
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.13	0.13	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Virginia	ACC	0.11	0.11	93.94	93.94	0.10	0.10
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
Bryant	NEC	0.11	0.11	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
James Madison	CAA	0.11	0.11	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
William & Mary	CAA	0.11	0.11	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.09	0.09	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Wagner	NEC	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
George Washington	A10	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Milwaukee	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00